Interesting premise - Espiocracy

Russia's Espiocrats
(((The plutocrats have been tamed, and replaced by a vast horde of spies. Much as this ominous prospect gives me pause, I have to think that maybe the siloviki are an *improvement* over the former semibankyrshina. Those moguls were a deeply unpleasant lot, and think what you may of Putin's spy petrocracy with its giant bombs, oil blackmail and hideously poisoned dissidents, he is hugely popular with the general Russian population. Ivan Sixpack loves that guy. Even Ivana Winecooler gets all hot and bothered when she sees Putin on vacation half-naked in camo pants.)))

'SILOVIKI' TAKE THE REINS IN POST-OLIGARCHY RUSSIA (Article)

Fuck this guy

The nation's top spook Michael McConnell told El Paso Times reporter Chris Roberts last week that debating the nation's spy laws in public means "some Americans are going to die" and that companies being sued for helping the government spy on Americans did help the government, an admission that Bush Administration lawyers have repeatedly told courts was a secret that could put Americans at risk. The astounding interview was published on Wednesday. (Debating Spy Laws Kills Americans and Telcos Did Spy on Americans, Spy Chief Says)

What a weaselly mother fuckin' thing to say.
First, more Americans will die crossing the street. Do you think they'll ban cars?
Secondly, there are risks with Liberty. It is not only soldiers who take those risks. Who told the American people that Liberty was all safe and cushy? It's not. We all are at risk. That is the cost. If you are not willing to take that risk then I say you are not an American. You are a gutless pig.

Breaking up is hard to do

For the sake of simplification, Iraq is primarily made us of three groups who really rather not be forced to govern together. The Shiites in the south would rather associate with Persians (Iran), the Sunni with Arabs (Saudi Arabia), and the Kurds with other Kurds. The latter being divided by a border between Iraq and Turkey. Turkey's a NATO ally although, since we largely dismissed not only the UN but also NATO when invading Iraq, the alliance is iffy. Trying to keep Turkey happy is a major factor in why we can't just chop the country up and be done with it, which probably is the easiest solution for us (it'd particularly suck for the Sunni's who'd have the least amount of oil to control). Division would likely lead to a period of reprisal killings and ethnic cleansings.

Oh wait...

This reporter's a jerk, but an interesting piece nonetheless:

Bush's Turkish Gamble

By Robert D. Novak
Monday, July 30, 2007; Page A15

The morass in Iraq and deepening difficulties in Afghanistan have not deterred the Bush administration from taking on a dangerous and questionable new secret operation. High-level U.S. officials are working with their Turkish counterparts on a joint military operation to suppress Kurdish guerrillas and capture their leaders. Through covert activity, their goal is to forestall Turkey from invading Iraq. (More)

Slowly, the adults retake control

"...Brown instructed his ministers that the phrase "war on terror" was no longer to be used..."

"...the Brown approach would be the approach of serious crime fighters around the world these days - community policing in which mutual trust is the cornerstone of crime prevention."
(Article)

"CIVPOL"

I've long argued for an American equivalent of GSG9 rather than disastrous, irrelevant war expeditions in our quest for dealing with political actors that use the illegal tactic of terror in an effort to forward their cause.
Philip Carter mentions that a colleague who is "a leading theorist in the field where crime and warfare converge", Lt. John Sullivan agrees...

Constabulary operations, such as these, are the "missing mission" in the United States security structure. The U.S. has no national police service (the FBI is a non-uniformed investigative agency) and state and local police address these functions internally. Few if any local U.S. Forces could field or contribute to an on-going expeditionary capability without straining their ability to perform their home mission. The U.S. also has no standing constabulary or EXPOL force and relies upon scarce or ill-fitted military units (and ad hoc civilian police units) to fill expeditionary needs. The same is true for NATO and the U.N.

(More at Intel Dump)
I've actually met one of Lt. Sullivan's people at an law enforcement intel seminar. Probably one of the most informative speakers at the conference.

I don't get paid enough...

Intel Analysis

Here's a level of sophistication that I haven't seen reported up to this point.

Tankers for U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan attacked in Pakistan (Article)

A fairly organized effort is usually represented when you see a coordinated attack on logistics. The article mentions missiles were fired remotely. TOW possibly?
Talk about a tight rope act. Musharraf is single handedly keeping the lid on the conflagration that's in that pot. Unfortunately, I think it's only a matter of time before Islamic extremists get to him.

Echo

Biong Boing echo

Spying on the Home Front: PBS domestic surveillance doc

Anonymous Digital Rights Crusader says,

Last night, PBS Frontline aired Spying on the Home Front (Link), devoted to all the ways our government is spying on us outside of normal lawful processes. With extras not included in the televised version, the episode is available in either Quicktime or Windows Media (Video Link).

President Bush described his anti-terrorist measures as narrow and targeted, but a FRONTLINE investigation has found that the National Security Agency (NSA) has engaged in wiretapping and sifting Internet communications of millions of Americans; the FBI conducted a data sweep on 250,000 Las Vegas vacationers, and along with more than 50 other agencies, they are mining commercial-sector data banks to an unprecedented degree.

Semantics of terror

Still no fucking definition.

Abortion clinics have been bombed with people in them...not terrorism.
Labs conducting animal research burned...terrorism.
Lite-brites garner 140 hours and apologies.
Real fake bombs get...two weeks suspension.

Feds push terrorist label on arsonists
A federal judge was to hear arguments Tuesday on a motion by the government to add a so-called terrorism enhancement to their sentences. (Article)

Create a bogeyman and you can lock up anyone.

Terrorism is designed through the use of violence to intimidate non-combatants into complying with ideological and/or political goals. It's not that I advocate the destruction of labs necessarily. It is that by confusing the two types of attackers is to not be prepared to defend against different types of attacks.

If we start thinking of a group like ALF as being a terrorist organization, we put ourselves at risk by misunderstanding actual terrorists. We also dilute the nastiness that is real terrorism. It also makes for bad analysis. Knowing that ALF does not want to commit acts of violence against people necessarily and is more interested in destroying apparatus instead, we can then assume that they would attack at night or on the weekend. A terrorist on the other hand, is interested in horrific carnage (not necessarily massive) therefore would be more inclined to attack during the week and during the day.
I'm not saying elements of radical groups might not eventually commit an act of terrorism. I'm not saying they're innocent; they've committed illegal guerrilla attacks against the corporate research community. I'm saying that they haven't yet comitted a terrorist act and it is to the detriment of the intelligence community, law enforcement, the courts, and most importantly our civil liberties if we allow this sloppy, opportunist use of the word terror for corporate/political agendas.
Hold everyone accountable for the proper use of the word.

Oil and Water II

Back when I had posted about a build-up of force in the Persian Gulf to intimidate Iran, but had warned about the fact that they had Silkworms missiles that I believe they got from China (Oil and Water).
I then read this with interest

CENTCOM Commander’s Veto Sank Bush’s Threatening Gulf Buildup
by Gareth Porter
Admiral William Fallon...vowed privately there would be no war against Iran as long as he was chief of CENTCOM, according to sources with access to his thinking. (Article)

If true, it would represent a pretty severe break between armed forces and the administration. I'd like to see more sources for confirmation, but I really wouldn't be surprised. There's a big gulf between talking shit and real fighting and I think the military is getting tired of them running big mouths while they do the fighting.

Significant

I thought this was important enough to echo Boing Boing.

Have you seen any nuclear material?
Pakistan places advertisements regarding 'misplaced' isotopes.
"Pakistan has never lost nuclear material per se, but it has a poor track record of protecting its nuclear technology." (article)

They say it's for material that may from medical waste and the like before Pakistan was a nation.
I give a 9.9999999999% chance that that's the case. 85% chance loose nukes and show up in some bomber's hands, but they're caught. 4.9999999% chance there's an attempted detonation in Iraq.
.0000001% chance loose nukes detonate in Britain and .0000000001% chance make it in a cargo container and detonate in the U.S.
It's still shitty we even have to think in these terms.


Now that I've hit on some keywords, I bet you this'll get a glance from the TIA, ADVISE, and ECHELON.

Note to Intel: If you're looking here you're wasting taxpayers money. Hit the bricks. The most effective intel comes from old fashioned investigation techniques.

Incoming!

Another salvo against Americans.

Spy Chief Seeks More Surveillance Power
National Intelligence Director Is Pushing To Expand Government's Eavesdropping Authority
WASHINGTON, April 11, 2007

The changes McConnell is seeking mostly affect a cloak-and-dagger category of warrants used to investigate suspected spies, terrorists and other national security threats. The court-approved surveillance could include planting listening devices and hidden cameras, searching luggage and breaking into homes to make copies of computer hard drives.

The argument has been presented that lacking these authorities, they can't go after the bad guys. I say if you've got such good evidence that you would like to completely fuck the 4th Amendment, then as an investigator you should have the balls to do it illegally and if you're right and you save the fucking world...I'm sure all will be forgiven.
I would also like to see a legal definition of terrorist and "other national security threats" before I give any more authorization.

Links

I'd like to be more paranoid. But alas, the sad reality is that conspiracies are usually not that well organized, agendized, or competent. The flip side to that is that while no group of people are necessarily out to get you, the systems they create might.

27B Stroke 6
The title is taken from one of my favorite movies, Brazil. This Wired Magazine blog deals with tech security and civil liberty issues.


Intelligence Meditation
Intel people I think are creative people at their core. I am. I'm also a big picture, concept kinda guy. I like finding the truth. I like the little surprises that can come along with the truth. I don't like policy people. They tend to be bureaucrats and have no sense of personal power, so they tend to bully. Most intel folks I think would recognize that most shit doesn't need to be secret, and a highly paranoid and power hungry admin/ops tends to slow the intel cycle by making information way too compartmentalized. By the time it gets disseminated, the product's gone cold or at least luke warm.

• Intel-Dump
• Counterterrorism Blog
  
• Ranger Against War

No kidding

I can't comment any further than this. It speaks for itself.

By Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank
Research fellows at the Center on Law and Security at the NYU School of Law. Bergen is also a senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C. (More...)

Hattip to NewsTrust

Niger Delta

It's interesting that such small, decentralized elements can put such a hurt on oil production.
Mark these little insurrections. We'll see more and more of this as oil supply diminishes, capital is consolidated in the hands of fewer and fewer, and demand continues to increase.
In fact, watch the same effect as potable water continues to diminish.

Photo: George Osodi/AP
Nigeria's militants highlight woes amid wealth
"We ARE not terrorists," screamed a black-masked militant brandishing an assault rifle. "We are freedom fighters!"
He had arrived minutes earlier in a motorboat bristling with machine-guns and rocket-propelled grenades held by fighters in camouflage body armour and balaclavas.
White flags, a tribute to their tribe's god of war, fluttered from the stern.

The Niger government recently requested a contingent of US Marines to hunt MEND down. The US declined...for now. Just wait 'til we really start feeling the pinch.

MEND at Wikipedia including timeline and tactics.

And from NPR's On Point:

Oil in the Niger Delta
The Niger Delta is rich with oil, but the local residents are some of the poorest in the world. We'll look at the rise in militancy and the fight for oil money.

A little side analysis. I want to draw attention the photos because I think they're an important element to the story. First indicator - they have embraced the media, which is significant in itself. Second - notice how they're outfitted? Matching vests, balaclavas, reasonable weaponry. These are folks who want to be seen as organized, reasonable, competent. They don't want to be seen as crazed, back-water terrorists, reactionaries. In no way do I mean to diminish their fight, but I find it interesting that they've managed to get so much coordinated gear. I'm sure the guerrillas in the bush aren't quite as well uniformed. They imply as much in the text, but these people understand the power of image.

It'll be an interesting struggle to keep an eye on.

Assume

Makes an ASS out of U and ME

Boing Boing has a link to the National Security Archives release of an administration brief presented by Centcom called Polo Step. Looking at it, I was astounded by the mis-assumptions.
Real fucking Pollyanna. But when you're fundamentally based on a lie, it will keep going until everyone else's reality tunnel bores through yours. However, this doesn't sound like it came from DIA or subcomponents. I bet this came from policy people, passed down for digestion, and then bounced back for wider distribution.

Minority Report

Tapping Brains for Future Crimes
A team of neuroscientists announced a scientific breakthrough last week in the use of brain scans to discover what's on someone's mind. (more at Wired magazine...)

Tipped by Disinformation

As the author points out, often results are over dramatized by breathless reporters, but there will come a day...

Real security

I've blogged about Bruce Schneier in a previous incarnation, but I wanted to point to his work again.
Mr. Schneier has been called by many a "security guru" and has been highly critical of what he terms the "Security Theater" that has been played out since September 11th, 2001. He is a specialist in computer cryptography, writes books, and blogs about security issues. His company was recently purchased by British Telecom.
Now a lot of people might think "great, security wonks talking about stuff. Real exciting." But really, anyone can benefit from the straight talk about the issues that goes on there. Some of it is pedantic, but mostly it's accessible to the regular joe. I actually have his blog RSS'd, as the topics are poignant and important for understanding just how fucked up and manipulated the response to the attack on the World Trade center has been and the drivel that is coming out of those that are responsible for securing the nation. But his blog isn't just bitching, Bruce also points out the recipes for good security and security policy.
For me the single most important function Schneier does is remind me to check the number's. At the core of security is risk assessment. While this seems obvious to many, we often over value some threats and undervalue others. For example, since 2001, 2752 died from terrorist attacks in the U.S., while 4875 pedestrians were killed in 2002 alone or multiplied by as many years, approximately 20,000 have gotten themselves run over in the same time period. I often tell people who are aware of my intelligence and counter-terror/insurgency background "In today's world of heightened security, one of the most effective things you can do to protect yourself is...Look both ways before crossing the street."
The same applies to practices. While we may garner an increase in protection from a practice, it may be insignificant statistically, have negative implications that are not immediately apparent, distract from a more effective program, and so on.
I've also acquired a great password safe that he designed, for free. Good for securely managing all the passwords without leaving scraps of paper around your desk.
Don't be a Security lemming, check out Schneier on Security.

• Schneier on Security: A weblog covering security and security technology.

BTW...

...a big fuck you to all the fuckers who blamed the failure to find WMD's on the Intel community.

Pentagon office produced `alternative' intelligence on Iraq
By Jonathan S. Landay 2.8.07
McClatchy Newspapers(MCT)

A special unit run by former Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld's top policy aide inappropriately produced "alternative" intelligence reports that wrongly concluded that Saddam Hussein's regime had cooperated with al-Qaida, a Pentagon investigation has determined. (More...)

Oil and water

This...
HY-2 Haiying

and this...

Aircraft carrier returning to Persian Gulf region from Somali mission (The San Diego Union-Tribune 1.31.07)

The carrier left Tuesday to return to the Persian Gulf region, where it had been supporting NATO-led forces in Afghanistan before going to the African coast, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record. (More...)

if you mean this...

“We believe we can solve our problems with Iran diplomatically,” Bush denies preparing attack against Iran (The Financial Times January 26 2007)

Warning!!!

They say that computer whizzes and such can track people fairly easily on the net. While I'm more comfortable than most, I'm not an expert. So I was surprised by how much information I could gather on visitors to Complex 39.
Now I feel obligated to warn everyone...the vanity counter below, at the bottom of the page will put a cookie on your machine (most sites do). The very act of clinking to a webpage anywhere can log your visit.
This is the information I have for the week (I won't post anything particularly sensitive). As you can see I can go deeper and view by city and by IP. Those details I'll keep private, but that doesn't mean blogger itself isn't keeping track, or google, or your ISP, or that sex tracking cookie, or....

I spent a lot of time concerned with keeping my identity private so I could happily continue in the intelligence or investigation field. Then I decided, if THEY don't like what I have to say about intelligence issues then fuck 'em, I don't really want to work where THEY are, humping the bosses leg, feeding them what THEY want to hear, lying to the "client" or "consumer" to keep the dollars rolling and not offending any of THEM. I don't want to work in Rah! Rah! fucking Law Enforcement if THEY want to keep doing the same old, tired bullshit that hasn't changed a damn thing since time immemorial. Crack a few fucking skulls, point fingers at the reprobates, and fucking call it a day. Hor-fucking-ray for the home team! God fucking bless you if you want to take that fucking barrel over the waterfall, but me...I've gotta get going on to a place where I can fucking live with myself. Fuck the oil kleptocrats, the product oligarchs, and the fucking theocracy cabal. I'm gonna find a nice non-profit or NGO and go help some people. Don't get me wrong, there are necessary services provided, but when the product is so manipulated and the manpower purged of anyone who might disagree...that's not intel, that's the manufacturing of (sur?)reality and consent.

Proposed IAO logo. It proved to be too creepy.

My former affiliation

Thank you. Thank you very much...
Now I've gotta take my meds for this fucking ulcer.

And by the way... a big "hello" and I'll try to keep my fucking country out of yours to all the foreign visitors (Is there really a foreign on the net?).

Additional resources
Bruce Schneier - Schneier on Security
CCleaner - freeware system optimization and privacy tool